构建新型零碳热力系统
江亿 , 付林 , 夏建军 , 谢晓云 , 吴彦廷 , 胡姗
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五、 新型零碳热力系统的经济社会效益
新型零碳热力系统通过分散式热泵提取自然界的低品位余热，可解决建筑运行5×109 GJ的热量需求，消耗电力5.4×1011 kW·h；应用余热共享系统，可解决7.6×109 GJ的工业用中低压蒸汽需求、5.4×109 GJ的北方城市冬季供暖用热需求，消耗电力1.46×1012 kW·h。如果完全利用燃煤锅炉制备这些热量，每年需要消耗7.2×108 tce（1 GJ热量对应消耗40 kgce）、排放1.87×109 tCO2；与完全利用电热法相比，用电量由5×1012 kW·h减少到2×1012 kW·h。通过热电协同的运行方式，各类热泵消耗的电力多是电力负荷低谷期、春季和秋季电力过剩的电力。当电力系统高比例采用风光电力后，可以认为这些热力系统的可灵活调节用电量来自风光电力，仅有循环水泵、蒸汽压缩机的部分用电不能根据电力系统峰谷变化进行调节（在总用电量中的占比不足20%）。如果电力系统全年的平均度电碳排放责任因子<0.4 kgCO2/(kW·h)，则新型热力系统的碳排放总量<1.6×108 tCO2，仅为全部采用燃煤制备这些热量产生碳排放量的8%。
建设新型零碳热力系统，主要涉及利用自然环境作为低温热源的分散式热泵系统、回收人类活动排放的低品位热量的余热共享系统。① 分散式热泵按照制热量计算的装机总量约为1×109 kW，热泵投资强度为1~1.5元/W，总投资为1万亿~1.5万亿元，主要依靠建设方、使用方的分散投资完成，将实现5×109 GJ热量的低碳供给。这些热泵主要用于替代分散式燃气壁挂进行供热，制备1 GJ热量由消耗28 m3的天然气改为消耗100 kW·h的电力；如果天然气价格为3元/m3、电价为0.54元/(kW·h)，则静态回收期在10年以内。② 回收人类活动排放余热的余热共享系统是重要的能源基础设施，主要包括：约2.5×109 GJ的跨季节储热设施，需要1万亿元投资、5×105亩土地；集中供热管网方面的改造和扩建（尤其是新建沿海核能余热输送管网），需要投资约3000亿元；各种余热热源的回收改造（尤其是核电余热、各类火厂余热、流程工业的余热），需要投资约5000亿元；利用低负荷期电力、余热共享系统提供余热制备工业生产用蒸汽，供汽能力为5×105 t/h，需要投资约1.5万亿元；建筑供暖利用方面的吸收式电动热泵降低回水温度改造，需要投资约2000亿元（设备和改造费用约为13元/m2）。
新型零碳热力系统共需投资3.5万亿~4万亿元，如果15年完成建设，每年投资约2500亿元。工程全部建成后，每年可提供工业用蒸汽3×109 t、建筑采暖用热5.4×109 GJ，按照当前市场价格计算的收入为0.966万亿元。制备这些热量需消耗低谷电力1.46×1012 kW·h，按照低谷电价0.35元/(kW·h)计算的运行电费为5000亿元，叠加购买余热的成本为800亿元、运行维护费为1500亿元、设备折旧费为2300亿元，总运行成本为0.96万亿元，与收入基本持平。
在此基础上，新型零碳热力系统还可获得多方面收益。① 具有灵活的用电调节能力，可认为所用电力是零碳电力。回收的余热属于废热，没有为了提供余热而增加碳排放，可视为零碳供热。与完全采用燃煤锅炉提供热量相比，每年减少排放1.7×109 tCO2。② 依靠储热提供北方城市建筑冬季的供热热源，提高工业生产用蒸汽供应的可靠性。③ 为核电、调峰火电、流程工业、数据中心等余热产生源提供可靠的冷却方式，相应生产过程在全年内都可以获得可靠的冷源。④ 制造业生产用能需要零碳转型，余热共享系统依靠原本排放的余热、低谷电力制备生产用蒸汽，提供稳定的零碳蒸汽制备能力，为零碳工业园区建设提供关键支撑。
余热共享设施建设需要投资3.5万亿~4万亿元，约50%用于土木工程，如大规模跨季节储热水库建设、余热共享系统管网建设、余热回收和蒸汽制备系统安装。相关需求可显著带动我国土建施工能力、建筑材料产能。另外的50%用于以各种新型热泵为主的热量变换装备，我国在此领域拥有全套的知识产权，技术水平、制造水平都处于国际领先地位。建设余热共享系统可以进一步发展这一制造业领域并增强国际市场竞争力。
六、 建设新型零碳热力系统需要的政策支持
新型热力系统的建设分为两个方面：依靠分散的使用者建设和改造的分散式热泵系统，依靠国家统一规划推进建设的余热共享系统。
对于分散式热泵系统，需要电价政策和改造工程的补贴机制。例如，实施“家电下乡”政策，支持农民采用分散式热泵采暖，对购买高能效热泵热水器提供部分补贴，鼓励居民更换原来的燃气热水器等。拉大电价峰谷差，促进热泵在电力负荷低谷期运行，实现分散式热泵制备热量的零碳化。
余热共享系统的建设需要从国家层面进行统一规划，因其涉及余热资源合理利用、供需匹配、输热管线布局、储热设施优化等复杂环节，局部最优方案未必全局最优。需要在全面调查余热资源与热需求的基础上，制定科学统一的顶层规划并确保严格执行；将余热共享系统纳入重大能源基础设施；管网系统、跨季节储热设施是余热共享系统的基础平台和服务设施，应依据基础设施建设的方式开展建设，并参照电网模式管理运营。进一步，建立热量按温度品位的核算方法和定价机制，激励企业投资余热回收改造和热量转换设施，通过市场化运营获得收益。随着余热共享基础设施和交易平台的逐步完善，余热产出端和应用端可主动投资基础设施，开展余热回收利用，在实现企业经济收益的同时，推动热源从燃料向余热转型。
此外，为了促进基于新型热力系统的热电协同，建议推行实时动态电价并合理拉大不同时刻的电价差，促进用热终端通过储热替代储电，在为电力系统削峰填谷的同时，可从电力价格差中获取较大收益，既有助于零碳电力系统建设，又可实现热力系统的零碳热量制备。
七、 结论
建设新型零碳热力系统是能源低碳转型、实现“双碳”目标的重要支撑，包括为低用热密度的建筑提供采暖、生活热水以及部分蒸汽需求的分散式热泵，回收人类活动排放的各种余热为北方地区建筑采暖、工业生产等提供高密度用热的余热共享系统。两部分将共同实现未来1.8×1010 GJ热量（不包括工业高压蒸气）供应，不再消耗燃料，而仅消耗2×1012 kW·h电力，且通过灵活调节可确保80%的消费电力为零碳电力。
为了加速推动热力系统的低碳转型，建议将新型热力系统作为能源体系建设的重要环节，明确主管部门、发展目标、转型路径，尽快发布规划方案和指导意见；加快推进零碳供热科技攻关，在热泵，热量变换，余热回收，长距离、低成本输热，跨季节储热，热电协同等共性关键技术方面实施重点突破与示范应用；以“余热共享新基建”为核心，全面优化热力系统建设管理机制和市场化交易机制，激活多元市场主体主动开展余热回收的设施建设与高效利用；实行实时动态电价制度并合理拉大电价差，促进热力系统消耗零碳电力以及通过储热实现热电协同。
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致谢
本研究同时得到清华大学 ‒ 丰田联合研究基金项目（20233930059）的支持。
基金资助
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3802400)
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3810000)
中国工程院咨询项目“城乡能源供给系统与路径发展战略研究”(2023-XBZD-07)
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